BMW hasn’t sold a 3 Series Touring in the United States since 2019. Seven years is a long time to leave wagon lovers out in the cold, and now the company is sending mixed signals about whether the drought will end.

A veteran insider on the Bimmer Post forums, someone with a track record worth paying attention to, claims the next-generation 3 Series Touring, codenamed G51, is headed stateside with a combustion engine. One variant. That’s the rumor. But sources closer to the decision say the odds sit at a coin flip: 50:50, with no final call made.

That ambiguity is peak BMW when it comes to wagons in America. The company loves to flirt with the idea, gauge enthusiasm, then quietly shelve it. This time, though, the calculus might be different.

The G51 is expected to debut in the second half of 2027, following the fully electric i3 Touring that BMW teased during former CEO Oliver Zipse’s final speech in March. BMW has all but confirmed a combustion-powered 3 Series wagon will exist globally. The question is purely whether American dealers will get allocation.

Which version would cross the Atlantic remains unclear. An M350 xDrive with the turbocharged inline-six would be the enthusiast’s pick. A four-cylinder 330i would broaden the buyer pool. A plug-in hybrid would tick regulatory boxes.

BMW apparently hasn’t decided, which suggests the business case is still being stress-tested against projected volumes.

Then there’s the M3 Touring question, which gets murkier. BMW has confirmed the next M3 sedan, codenamed G84, with an evolved version of the S58 inline-six making north of 500 horsepower. But whether the wagon gets the full M treatment hasn’t been announced.

The company has only acknowledged it’s “considering” selling an M3 Touring in the US, if the car gets built at all. America missed the G81 M3 Touring entirely, a decision that aged poorly as the car became one of the most lusted-after BMWs of its generation.

The M5 Touring’s unexpectedly strong North American sales have given internal advocates fresh ammunition. A smaller, cheaper M wagon below the M5 would fill a gap nobody else in the segment is even attempting to address.

But the timeline is sobering. If the standard G51 Touring launches in late 2027, an M3 variant wouldn’t arrive before 2029 at the earliest. That’s a lot of runway for priorities to shift, markets to change, and bean counters to get cold feet.

BMW is juggling an extraordinary product blitz right now. The Neue Klasse rollout targets roughly 40 models by the end of next year. The iX3, i3 sedan, refreshed 7 Series, and new X5 are already out.

The combustion 3 Series sedan, electric iX4, second-generation X7, and 5 Series facelift are all queued up. Resources and attention are finite, and a low-volume US wagon isn’t going to top anyone’s priority list in Munich.

The pattern is familiar. BMW knows American enthusiasts want the wagon. BMW knows the volumes will be modest.

And BMW keeps the door cracked just wide enough to sustain hope without making a commitment. The G51 Touring exists and it’s coming to global markets. Whether it gets a US visa depends on whether someone inside the company is willing to champion a car that will never outsell an X3 but might just remind people why they fell for the brand in the first place.

Fifty-fifty odds. For a BMW wagon in America, that might actually be progress.