Forty-one points. That’s the gap Kimi Antonelli has opened over Lewis Hamilton heading into this weekend’s Austrian Grand Prix, and it tells you everything about where power really sits in the 2025 Formula 1 season.
Hamilton’s first victory in Ferrari red two weeks ago was a moment the sport will replay for decades. But moments don’t win championships. Points do. And Mercedes has been stacking them without mercy.
The question heading into Spielberg isn’t whether Hamilton can win again. It’s whether anyone can consistently challenge a Mercedes operation that has looked unbreakable outside of a couple of mechanical hiccups in Canada and Spain. Those failures opened the door for Hamilton’s breakthrough. Without them, the conversation around this season would be even more lopsided.
George Russell sits just nine points behind Hamilton in the standings, which means both Silver Arrows drivers are breathing down the seven-time champion’s neck. Ferrari’s last win at the Red Bull Ring came in 2022 with Charles Leclerc. Before that, you have to rewind to 2002.
The track has historically been unkind to the Scuderia, and hoping for another Mercedes stumble is not a strategy.
Red Bull has been finding pace over the last few races, and not just through Max Verstappen’s sheer force of will. The team’s home race adds pressure and motivation in equal measure, but they remain a clear step behind the front two operations in overall consistency. A podium would be a good result. A win would require chaos.
The midfield, meanwhile, has become the most entertaining part of the grid. McLaren, Alpine, Racing Bulls, Haas, and even Audi are scrapping over positions third through tenth with genuine intensity. That battle is producing better wheel-to-wheel racing than the fight at the front, where Mercedes has been allowed to operate with uncomfortable ease.
Hamilton’s move to Ferrari was supposed to shake up the competitive order. And in one glorious afternoon, it did. But one race does not make a pattern.
Ferrari needs to prove that its car can fight at the sharp end on a track that doesn’t suit its recent strengths, against a Mercedes team that hasn’t needed luck to dominate — only reliability.
Antonelli, at 18, is driving with the composure of someone who has no business being this calm this early in his career. He’s not just leading the championship; he’s controlling it. Russell, the consummate opportunist, is right there waiting for any slip.
Together, they represent a two-car assault that no other team can currently match.
The romantic in every fan wants Hamilton to string together victories and mount a genuine title challenge. The realist sees a 41-point deficit, a car that’s fast but not fastest, and a calendar that includes several tracks where Mercedes should walk away with it.
Austria will be revealing. If Ferrari can stay within striking distance of the Mercedes cars on pure pace — not because of retirements or safety cars — then Hamilton’s championship hopes remain alive. If the gap reverts to what we saw before Canada, Spielberg will confirm what the numbers already suggest: Mercedes has this season firmly in hand, and Hamilton’s win in red may end up being a beautiful outlier rather than a turning point.
The stopwatch doesn’t care about storylines. It never has.
Share this Story